Nyhet | 2016-03-14 | 13:52

Modeling the future wind production in the Nordic countries

Master's thesis by Victor Granberg, Master of Electric Power Engineering at The Royal Institute of Technology (KTH).

Supervisor at Vattenfall: Jussi Mäkelä.


In recent years there has been a rapid expansion in wind power production within the Nordic countries which creates a demand for accurate wind power models. This thesis looks into how to create accurate time series of wind power production that can be used in energy market simulations. The thesis has two main parts where one is to create time series of wind power production based on the currently installed wind parks in the Nordic system and the second is to create future time series corresponding to year 2040.

The suggested model uses gridded wind speed time series from 1979 and onward coming from the meteorological model ERA-Interim. The locations of currently installed wind power capacity are matched with their corresponding ERA-Interim wind speed. A power curve is optimized to give the best fit with historical wind power production. The wind speeds time series are transformed into wind power production series by applying the power curve and finally aggregated into one wind energy production series per price region. These wind power production time series are then compared to historical wind power production data and later used for electricity market simulations in a program called EMPS.

For the year 2040 a new set of wind power production series are produced. The difference is that technological development and increased geographical distribution are taken into account. The resulting series are then used in long term market simulations together with the wind power production series that represents the current system by shifting the weight factor each year from the current series to the 2040 series.

The final series for the current system provides high hourly correlation and low errors compared with historical wind power production. The effect of the 2040 series gave higher wind value factors, higher power output in relation to installed capacity and a reduced variability in hourly wind power production.